2025 Midyear Outlook
Between the changes to U.S. policy, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy, the first half of 2025 has been eventful, to say the least. As we move into the remainder of the year, some variables, such as the economic impacts of tariffs and a stricter immigration policy, remain, so the path forward still has many twists and turns.
To provide perspective on these topics and more, the investment management team at BOK Financial has prepared its 2025 midyear outlook, Can short-term pain yield long-term gains?, as a downloadable report, online articles and webinar.
In the live webinar at 11 a.m. CDT on Thursday, July 17, our experts will discuss what’s to come for the remainder of the year in what's likely to be a dynamic climate for investors.
The U.S. economy
U.S. growth likely will be positive for the remainder of 2025, but inflation risks, high interest rates, and policy uncertainty are weighing on consumers, businesses and markets. The Fed is cautious about cutting rates too soon to try to avoid an "echo wave of inflation," but the danger of cutting rate too late, amid a weakening job market, remains.
International
U.S. trade policy shifts and rising geopolitical tensions are accelerating deglobalization in 2025, disrupting markets and reshaping global supply chains. The initial shock of sweeping tariffs has eased, but long-term impacts on inflation and demand remain uncertain. Meanwhile, conflicts in the Middle East and between Ukraine and Russia highlight ongoing global instability and strategic economic recalibration.
Energy and AI
Energy volatility in 2025 is being driven by geopolitical conflict, uncertain demand and shifting trade. While the U.S. promotes drilling, output depends on market conditions. Tensions in the Middle East could also threaten supply routes, adding risk. Meanwhile, rising power needs from AI and data centers are boosting demand for natural gas and nuclear energy.
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Meet our experts
BOK Financial's experts share their diverse knowledge to break down complex topics, provide timely updates on the state of our economy and dig into industry trends. Get to know these interesting individuals representing just some of our company's areas of expertise.
J. Brian Henderson, CFA
Chief Investment OfficerJ. Brian Henderson is responsible for leading the Alternative Investments group, Strategic Investment Advisors, and Cavanal Hill Investment Management, Inc.
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Steve Wyett, CFA
Chief Investment StrategistSteve M. Wyett, CFA is responsible for tracking and communicating about economic indicators affecting the investment climate and overseeing BOK Financial's investment management message.
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Matthew Stephani, CFA
President, Cavanal Hill Investment ManagementMatt Stephani is a successful, highly motivated financial markets professional with 20 years of experience managing public equities across all sectors.
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